|Nota de VR: este análisis de Bloomberg confirma el sobrecalentamiento de la economía venezolana, la cual debería enfriarse a fin de estabilizar los precios y evitar trastornos en la tasa de cambio. Pero |
¿quién le pone elcascabel al gato, a dos semanas de las elecciones presidenciales ?
November 16, 2006
Venezuela's economy grew more than 10 percent for a sixth straight quarter in the July-through- September period as thegovernment used record oil revenue to swell state payrolls and build roads, bridgesand housing for the poor.
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of a country's production ofgoods and services, expanded 10.2 percent in the quarter from a year earlier, matching the second-quarter growth rate, the central bank said. Oilexports soared 15 percent in the quarter to $15.9 billion, the bank said.
Venezuela has become the fastest-growing economy in Latin America asPresident Hugo Chavez, who is running for re-election next month, boosted government spending 56 percent in the first eight months of the year, fueling a surgein consumer spending.
“Our sales in Venezuela boomed,'' said Adriana Nunez, a Sao Paulo-based finance director for the Latin American division of Cadbury Schweppes Plc,the world's third-largest maker of soft drinks. “The government spendingpolicies are giving people a lot more cash in hand to spend.''
The pace of growth comes at a cost: Inflation is quickening as companies struggle to boost output enough to meet the increase in consumer demand. Venezuela's annual inflation rate jumped to a one-year high of 15.5percent in October from 10.4 percent in May.
Alejandro Puente, an analyst with Banco Provincial SA, Venezuela's third-largest bank by assets, said inflation will keep accelerating andend the year at 17 percent.
“The economy will really overheat if they try to keep growing bystimulating demand,'' Puente said. “It's not sustainable. Growth will slow and you'llhave a lot more inflation.
'' Construction grew 35 percent in the quarter, fueled by government infrastructure projects, said Irwin Perret, president of the Venezuelan Construction Association. Fixed investment rose 44 percent in the quarterto its highest level since 1997, the bank said.
“Our industry is being driven by public investment and the strength ofthe overall economy,'' Perret said in an interview in Caracas. “The government has a lot of money.''
The surge in government spending has sparked an increase the money supplyand spurred bank lending, which rose 6 percent in October to 54.7 trillionbolivars ($25.5 billion) from September, Softline Consultores, a Caracas-basedfinancial consulting company, said today.
Oil industry production, refining and marketing in the third quarter declined 1.8 percent in Venezuela, the world's fifth-largest crude exporter. Non-oil GDP grew 11.7 percent, the central bank said.
The surplus in the current account, the broadest measure of a country'strade in goods and services, narrowed to $7.7 billion from $8.1 billion a year ago. The deficit in the capital account, which measures investment flows, narrowed to $3.3 billion from $5.1 billion, the bank said.