Exuberant expansion set to continue

Por Venezuela Real - 22 de Agosto, 2007, 14:06, Categoría: Economía

ARCAYA & ASOCIADOS
THINK TANK
August  22, 2007

SUBJECT:
The outlook for growth, employment, poverty and economic stability.


SIGNIFICANCE:
Venezuela has experienced rapid growth since the end of the recession in 2003. This raises the question of whether the expansion is an unsustainable "oil boom" driven by high oil prices that is headed for "bust" - or whether other factors are responsible. 


ANALYSIS:
Following the military coup that temporarily toppled the government of President Hugo Chavez in April 2002, an oil strike from December 2002-February 2003 sent the economy into a severe recession, which led to the loss of 24% of GDP. Since the political and economic situation began to stabilise in the second quarter of 2003, real (inflationadjusted)


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