COUNTRY REPORT AND FORECAST APRIL 2008

Por Venezuela Real - 16 de Abril, 2008, 14:01, Categoría: Prensa Internacional

Economist Intelligence Unit
Arcaya & Asociados
April 2008

Outlook for 2008-09

 Highlights

• Hugo Chávez’s defeat in the December 2007 referendum on  constitutional reform will give a boost to the beleaguered opposition.  However, its internal division will prevent a major political  realignment in the near term. 

• The government will continue to use the state’s wealth of energy  resources as leverage to deepen diplomatic and commercial relations  with countries it considers “friendly” within and outside the region. 

• The government is unlikely to move towards full state control of the  economy, but concerns about further nationalisation will curb private-  sector investment. 

• The central government deficit is unlikely to deteriorate given higher  oil prices, but the true fiscal position will be worse, as an increasing  burden of expenditure will be placed on PDVSA and Fonden. 

• Deficiencies in the policy environment and a stabilisation of fiscal  revenue will combine to produce a deceleration of GDP growth in the  forecast period. 

• Assuming that oil prices remain high, the authorities are unlikely to  devalue the bolívar until 2009. Sales of US dollar-denominated assets  will increase, but the gap between the premium and official exchange  rates will remain large.

...

Download report (pdf - 162 kb)






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