Energy Economist: OPEC decoded - September 10, 2008
September 10, 2008
OPEC's meeting Tuesday may be seminal. They have the opportunity by their action to prove or disprove the peak oil theory. There is no doubt that oil prices have contributed to the current economic difficulties of the world economy.
In the past the dollar has been an OPEC excuse for high oil prices. With the dollar strengthening by the same argument they should expect lower prices. The argument was for the most part specious. While one would expect a weaker dollar to lead to higher oil prices, the ratio should be near one--to-one on a percentage basis. It was never the dollar causing high oil prices but rather high oil prices leading to a weak dollar. In terms of puppys wagging tails or vice versa, the oil price has wagged the dollar rather than the other way.
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